What If the Tunguska Asteroid Hit Washington D.C. in 1908? Impacts on WWI and WWII
Imagine a world where, in 1908, the Tunguska asteroid, which is known for flattening about 2000 square kilometers of Siberian forest, had instead struck Washington D.C. The explosion, equivalent to 15 megatons of TNT, would have had catastrophic consequences, reshaping the course of history, particularly affecting World War I (1914-1918) and World War II (1939-1945).
The Asteroid’s Impact on US Governance
The immediate aftermath of such an event would see the complete destruction of the US’s administrative infrastructure. As the Tunguska event flattened vast areas, Washington D.C. would face a similar fate, possibly resulting in the destruction of critical government buildings and infrastructure. The Pentagon, home to the US army's chief of staff, J. Franklin Bell, would be severely impacted. If Bell was not present in his office during the asteroid strike, the consequences for military and governmental continuity would be dire.
Even if Bell survived, the disruption of infrastructure and the die-off of critical personnel would necessitate the creation of a new government. Chief of staff J. Franklin Bell would have to assume leadership and form a government from among military and other officials. However, with such a catastrophic event, the idea of maintaining a traditional constitution would likely be suspended in favor of emergency measures to ensure the functioning of the state.
Consequences for WWI
The impact of the Tunguska event on the United States would be profound, particularly in terms of its ability to participate in World War I. Public opinion in the United States was significantly isolationist, and any large-scale intervention in European conflicts would be infeasible. With Theodore Roosevelt, a pro-interventionist president, already deceased due to this catastrophic event, isolationism would further harden. The absence of a strong, interventionist leader like Roosevelt would likely result in the US maintaining a stance of neutrality.
Given the isolationist stance and the absence of a leader like Roosevelt, the US would likely engage in limited trade with both the Allies and the Central Powers to maintain its neutrality. Such trade would be driven by economic considerations rather than political alignment. As a result, the US would remain on the sidelines of WWI, albeit with indirect economic influence through trade with both sides. The Allied powers, weakened by the separation from their American ally, would likely face more difficulties in their fight against the Central Powers.
Outcomes of WWII
The absence of the United States in WWI would have significant implications for World War II. The Central Powers, particularly Germany, would not face the anticipated American opposition. This would allow Germany to continue its campaign more effectively, potentially leading to a German victory in WWI. The consequences of this would ripple into WWII, with the Allies facing a significantly more formidable opponent. The outcome of WWII would likely see the Allies cede numerous territories to Berlin, and Europe would become economically and politically aligned with Germany.
The post-war arrangement would see a substantially different geopolitical landscape. Europe, economically and politically tied to Germany, would avoid continental conflicts. This stability would also mean that the British Empire, heavily reliant on the economic contributions of its colonies, would become even more powerful and stable. Consequently, Canada, a dominion of the British Empire, would be more closely integrated with Britain, leading to a stronger and more resilient Commonwealth.
Conclusion
The hypothetical scenario of the Tunguska asteroid impacting Washington D.C. in 1908 would have profound and wide-ranging effects on the course of World Wars I and II. The prolonged absence and influence of the United States would have shifted the balance of power in Europe, altering the outcomes of both conflicts. This analysis highlights the sensitive nature of geopolitical stability and the significant impact of even seemingly minor events on the course of world history.