Understanding Turkey’s Strategic Actions and Their Implications for Regional Stability

Turkey’s actions against Greece are not merely provocations but strategic maneuvers aimed at externalizing domestic economic and political failures. By distorting attention towards Greece, Turkey seeks to shift focus away from its internal challenges. These actions, however, do not violate international treaties or laws, as the country claims a right to protect its territorial integrity and sovereignty.

The Strategic Context

As Turkey grapples with significant economic issues, including high inflation rates, and political instability, there is a rationale behind its confrontational stance. Matthew Sandeman, an expert in international relations, provides valuable insights, explaining that these actions can be seen as part of a broader geopolitical strategy. This strategy leverages the existing tensions between Turkey and Greece to garner support domestically amid an upcoming general election.

Domestic Political Considerations

The timing of these actions is no coincidence. Erdogan, who is lagging in the polls, seeks a spectacular event to bolster his political standing. The concept of 'localist identity-based anti-global leadership' is increasingly prevalent, especially as the global economic system fails to deliver upward mobility for the majority. Leaders resort to identity solidarity to win elections, often at the cost of regional stability.

Legal and Territorial Considerations

Turkey justifies its actions within the framework of international law, citing the United Nations Charter and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Under UNCLOS, signatories can extend their territorial waters to 12 nautical miles, allowing Turkey to claim a 12 nautical mile territorial water zone in the Black Sea and the eastern Mediterranean.

The current situation also reflects a broader contextual understanding. With only 9 months left until the elections, the nationalist sentiment is heightened, making dormant neo-Ottoman sentiments more significant. This sentiment, when mobilized, can lead to destabilizing actions with potential military consequences. It is important to note that while Turkey has a right to protect its sovereignty, actions like these also carry significant risks and may lead to broader regional conflicts.

Understanding the strategic and political underpinnings of Turkey’s actions against Greece is crucial for comprehending the broader implications for regional stability. Leaders like Erdogan must manage their domestic political narratives carefully, considering the long-term consequences of their actions on both Turkey and the region. International cooperation and dialogue remain critical to mitigating these risks and ensuring peace and stability in the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions.