Balkan Unity: A Feasible Path or a Farcical Dream?

The idea of creating an Orthodox Balkan State Union to bypass the Western European blockade of EU accession has been circulating. However, the feasibility of this union within the current geopolitical context is questionable. This article explores the economic, political, and social challenges that such a union would face, focusing on Bulgaria, Serbia, North Macedonia, and Montenegro.

Geopolitical and Economic Realities

The concept of a unified state in the Balkans is not a new one. The idea of the Greater Serbia still looms large, making any proposal for a Balkan union contentious. While the idea may seem appealing in theory, the practical realities of geopolitical and economic dynamics are far more complex. For example, Austria, despite not being an EU member, has stronger economic and personal relations with the proposed union countries than any intra-Balkan relations. This suggests that the proposed union lacks the necessary economic incentive to form a cohesive entity.

EU Incentives and Bulgaria

Bulgaria, already a member of the EU, has little to gain from such a union. In fact, Bulgaria's incentive to join an Orthodox Balkan State Union is practically non-existent. Germany, Bulgaria's largest trading partner, would certainly oppose any such economic suicide. Even if one were to envision an ideal scenario, achieving a parliamentary majority favoring this union would be a significant challenge. Bulgaria would naturally wish to maintain control over the union, using its leverage to dictate terms rather than allow others to have a majority in parliament.

Ethnic Divides and Historical Context

The historical and ethnic divides within the Balkans pose significant hurdles to forming a cohesive state. While religious identity plays a role, different ethnic and national identities exacerbate these challenges. The failed Yugoslavia was a testament to these divisions. A new Orthodox Yugoslavia would need to overcome these deep-seated differences, which would require substantial time and effort. Historical animosities, such as the Greco-Bulgarian tensions, have demonstrated that shared EU membership can help mitigate these issues. Conversely, a smaller union composed of just Greece, Bulgaria, and Romania might lead to increased internal conflict over control and dominance.

Political Feasibility and EU Concerns

Moreover, the political feasibility of a Balkan union is questionable. The political elite in Brussel might not be as foolish as envisioned, and even Scotland’s potential exclusion from the EU after secession serves as a reminder that the EU's rules are more stringent than they initially appear. Attempting to join the EU through a backdoor, such as merging with Bulgaria, Greece, or Romania, is likely to result in rejection. The EU would likely bar or kick out such an attempt, especially given the non-EU origin of the countries involved. Such a move would also be seen as aggressive and degrading by both Brussels and the people of the proposed union countries.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while the idea of a Balkan Orthodox State Union may seem ideal on paper, the practical challenges it faces, including economic, political, and social obstacles, make it a farcical dream for now. For the time being, the best hope for peace and unity in the Balkans lies in the current EU framework, despite its flaws. Over time, the shared EU membership and the gradual integration process may help heal the historical rifts and create a more cohesive region.