Turkey and Armenia: Why a Military Move by Turkey Risks Escalation in the South Caucasus
The ongoing tensions in the South Caucasus continue to spark debates on geopolitical strategies and the intricate balance of power. A recent development suggests that Turkey might consider sending troops into Armenia, a move that many view as a risky endeavor. However, given the current landscape, it is likely that such an action may not occur. Instead, Turkey is more likely to employ its time-tested strategy of proxy-warring to achieve its objectives.
Avoiding Direct Military Conflict
One of the primary reasons why Turkey might not risk sending troops directly into Armenia is the potential for escalation into a full-scale conflict. This could lead to a wider involvement of regional powers, including Russia, further complicating an already delicate situation. Turkey's strategy of proxy-warring allows it to exert its influence without the high risks and costs associated with direct military engagement.
Using Proxies for Influence
Similar to its actions in the past, Turkey is more likely to arm and train the Azeri forces. By doing so, Turkey can support Azerbaijan in its territorial disputes with Armenia, thereby exerting its influence in the region. This approach enables Turkey to indirectly achieve its goals while minimizing direct military involvement. Additionally, by stationing troops defensively in Azerbaijan, Turkey can provide a credible deterrence against potential Armenian offensive actions.
Effect on the Balance of Power
The deployment of Azeri forces with better armaments and training shifts the balance of power in the conflict. This move empowers Azerbaijan in terms of offensive capabilities, potentially changing the strategic dynamics of the region. Such a shift can disrupt the current stalemate and favor Azerbaijan's objectives, thereby altering the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus.
Russia’s Possible Counter-Moves
In the event that Russia perceives any risk to its interests or those of its allies, it may respond by providing similar support to Armenia. By backing Armenia with its own military resources, Russia can maintain the status quo and continue to influence the region. This strategic response by Russia would likely lead to a new stalemate, as both sides would be effectively backed by major regional powers.
Conclusion
In summary, the current geopolitical climate in the South Caucasus favors a strategy of proxy-warring over direct military conflict. Turkey's preference for this approach not only minimizes risks but also allows it to maintain its influence in the region. However, such actions should not be underestimated, as they can significantly shift the balance of power and potentially lead to further escalation. As Russia remains an influential player in the region, both sides must carefully navigate their moves to avoid a wider conflict.