The Hesitance of Russia and Iran in Supporting Armenia: A Complex Regional Dynamics Analysis
The ongoing conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) has drawn significant attention from multiple international actors, particularly Russia and Iran. This essay explores the rationale behind the hesitance of these major powers in offering substantial support to Armenia, analyzing the regional dynamics and international perceptions that influence their decisions.
Armenia's Overestimation of Russian Support
Armenia's expectations for Russian support have exceeded reality. Despite historical and strategic ties, Armenia has significantly overestimated the level of assistance it could expect from Russia. This can be attributed to several factors, including the misperception that Russia would feel a stronger obligation due to its historical alliance with Armenia. Currently, Armenia is anxiously expecting Russia to intervene, but the reality is that no nation recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as Armenian or independent territory. The international community, including Russia, views it as Azerbaijani territory.
A Regional Perspective and Peace Process
The conflict in the Nagorno-Karabakh region involves five countries, all of which have their own vested interests and a “dirty hand” in the matter. Despite its influence, Russia has not yet managed to engage Iran and Turkey in the peace process, indicating the complex nature of regional dynamics. For sustained peace, all five nations must agree on the resolution of occupied territories. The path to peace is fraught with challenges due to the need for impactful decisions regarding the formal recognition of these territories.
The Role of Russia and its Strategic Calculations
Russia's strategic calculations play a crucial role in its hesitance or perceived lack of support toward Armenia. As a major supplier of arms to Azerbaijan, Russia cannot be neutral in the conflict without undermining its own strategic interests. Further, Russia promotes pro-Azerbaijani claims on the international stage, raising questions about its support towards Armenia. Russia's actions are often guided by a desire to maintain a balanced approach and avoid direct confrontation, which might harm its geopolitical alliances and economic interests.
Iran's Complex Position
Iran's hesitance to support Armenia is influenced by complex factors. On one hand, Iran has reasons to be wary of Azerbaijan's hostility and military cooperation with Israel. However, Iran is also influenced by its own perceptions and actions, such as countering anti-Iranian misdeeds in the region. It is clear that Iran knows Armenia's actions as an aggressor, having occupied Azerbaijani territory since 1992–1994 and committing war crimes, thus redeploying one million Azeris from their lands.
Implications and Broader Context
Armenia's situation is further complicated by the broader geopolitical context. The United States is currently leveraging Russophobia, leading to harsher sanctions on Russia and its allies such as Iran. This environment might promote a more critical stance towards Russia, influencing Armenia's perception of Russian support. Similarly, the sanctions against Venezuela and Iran during the unprecedented SARS-Cov-2 pandemic underscore the severe economic consequences of such actions, adding another layer of complexity to the situation.
Conclusion
The regional dynamics surrounding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are intricate and multi-faceted. Both Russia and Iran are navigating a complex interplay of interests, historical loyalties, and strategic calculations. While Armenia's expectations of support remain high, the reality on the ground is that no nation acknowledges Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent territory. The path to a lasting resolution involves resolving the occupied territories and making difficult, yet necessary, decisions. The international community and the involved parties must work collaboratively to achieve peace and stability in the region.