Should the South Caucasus Countries Join EU or NATO: An Analysis

The geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus region is complex, with countries like Armenia, Azerbaijan, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Artsakh, and Georgia each facing unique challenges and opportunities. Their trajectories towards European integration or alignment with other regional blocs, such as NATO or the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), are of significant interest to both the global powers and the countries themselves. This article explores the prospects and implications of these countries joining the European Union (EU) or NATO, considering their alignment with EU values, their strategic positions, and potential conflicts with other regional blocs.

South Caucasus Countries and European Integration

Armenia and Georgia are often discussed in the context of their potential EU membership, despite facing various obstacles. These nations, situated at the crossroads of Europe and the Middle East, have strong cultural and historical ties to Europe. Both Armenia and Georgia are members of the Council of Europe and the European Political Community. Armenia also has a European Union Eastern Partnership (EU-EP) agreement, which indicates a desire to align with EU norms and standards. Notably, Georgia has been a vocal proponent of joining the EU, and its government's active efforts to this end are reflected in its policies and reforms.

However, the reality is that the path to EU membership is fraught with challenges. Armenia and Azerbaijan, in particular, remain embroiled in a protracted conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. This conflict drains resources and hinders progress on reforms necessary for EU accession. Similarly, Azerbaijan's authoritarian government and low democratic indicators pose significant hurdles. The government of Azerbaijan's leader, Ilham Aliyev, has often expressed skepticism about EU membership, indicating that they may not be willing to go through the rigorous process required.

Role of NATO

NATO is another potential pathway for these countries, especially for Armenia and Georgia, as both have applied for membership. The Caucasus region is strategically important for NATO, serving as a potential staging area for operations against Russia, particularly in terms of their oil fields and access to Iran. For this reason, NATO is likely to continue to support pro-Western oligarchs and efforts to destabilize the region. This could lead to further conflicts and instability, undermining the security and governance of the countries involved.

For countries like Azerbaijan, the decision to join NATO might be less driven by a desire to align with Western values and more about gaining security guarantees and access to Western defense technologies. Azerbaijan's relationship with NATO, however, remains complex, given its lack of democratic norms and the ongoing conflict with Armenia.

Alternatives to EU and NATO

The South Caucasus countries may also consider other regional blocs, such as the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The EAEU offers economic benefits and security guarantees, but at the cost of reduced sovereignty and alignment with Western values. Countries like Armenia and Georgia, which lean more towards Europe, may find themselves in a difficult position if they decide to align more closely with Russia through the EAEU, given their historical and cultural ties to Europe.

For Azerbaijan, the benefits of aligning with Russia might be more appealing, especially if they are seeking to balance their economic and security interests while keeping their alignment with NATO at a low level.

Conclusion

While the prospect of EU membership remains promising for Armenia and Georgia, the complex geopolitical landscape and ongoing conflicts make it unlikely for these countries to realize this goal in the near future. The decision for these South Caucasus countries to join EU or NATO should be based on a comprehensive assessment of their strategic interests, alignment with their values, and the potential impact on regional stability. For countries like Armenia and Georgia, a closer alignment with Europe, even if it means not joining the EU, might be the most viable option, given the economic and security benefits it offers. In contrast, Azerbaijan's alignment with Russia or NATO may depend on their ability to balance their interests and security priorities.