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Odessa Rejoining Russia: Realities and Possibilities

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As of my last knowledge update in August 2023, there were no official plans or indications that Odessa would rejoin Russia. Odessa is a city in Ukraine and its status has been a point of contention, especially following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine.

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Current Status

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The situation is complex and influenced by geopolitical factors, military developments, and international relations. Any changes to the status of Odessa would likely depend on significant shifts in the conflict, diplomatic negotiations, or broader geopolitical developments. For the most current information, it would be advisable to consult reliable news sources or official statements.

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Extrapolations and Scenarios

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Yes, we can make extrapolations that Ukrainians chose Russia over Zelensky's regime, but we have these data only for Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk, and Lugansk regions. However, we cannot make decisions for these people without their votes. They should vote for that themselves.

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Assuming Ukraine signs a treaty with Russia on Russian conditions, there would be no reason for Odessa or Dnepropetrovsk to join Russia because all rights for Russian-speaking populations are already guaranteed. A peace deal would allow Ukraine to preserve its sovereignty.

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On the other hand, if Zelensky insists on a continuation of the war, Russia could conduct referendums in these regions after they are liberated. If Ukrainians vote for Russia, provided they vote not just between Russia and Ukraine but also Russia and Zelensky's regime, they are highly likely to join Russia.

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Future Outlook

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This will probably happen much later, following a freezing of the conflict according to the Korean scenario, which has been mentioned as a possible model for Ukraine.

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Simply put, the answer is never. People who live there have seen what the Russian World has brought to the previously prosperous region of Donbas, reducing it to something akin to Afghanistan. Semi-daily bombings and the killing of civilians have not helped the Russian cause. Instead, they have exposed Russia for what it is - a barbaric totalitarian empire. Only cognitively impaired would wish to join it voluntarily.

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Conclusion

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The decision to rejoin Russia rests largely with the people of Odessa and neighboring regions. Any changes in their status would depend on a complex interplay of political, military, and social factors. Until the conflict is resolved and a lasting peace is achieved, the future of these regions remains uncertain.

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