Can Hungary Be Kicked Out of the EU and NATO: A Legal Analysis
The question of whether Hungary can be expelled from the European Union (EU) and/or the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a complex issue, steeped in international law and geopolitical considerations. This article aims to clarify the legal framework governing such a scenario, examining the possibilities and challenges associated with expelling Hungary from both organizations.
EU: A Clunky Matter
When it comes to the EU, the process of expelling a member state is not as straightforward as some might imagine. The primary challenge lies in the fact that the Maastricht Treaty, which forms the legal basis of the EU, specifically provides that only the country in question can decide to leave. This is enshrined in Articles 50 and 79 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU).
Although there are circumstances under international law where a state can be expelled, such as material breaches of treaty obligations or fundamental changes of circumstances, the process remains fraught with legal and procedural hurdles. Here’s a closer look:
Material Breach
Material breaches can lead to the termination of a treaty, but the EU's legal framework does not provide for such a scenario. Termination based on a material breach would require explicit consent from Hungary, which is unlikely given the current geopolitical climate.
Fundamental Change of Circumstances
A fundamental change of circumstances could theoretically provide grounds for expulsion, but invoking this clause is complex and would require a contentious legal battle. Furthermore, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) would have jurisdiction and is likely to uphold the requirement of consent.
NATO: A Simpler Matter
In contrast to the EU, the process of expelling Hungary from NATO is simpler due to the terms of the North Atlantic Treaty. Unlike the Maastricht Treaty, the North Atlantic Treaty does not contain a termination clause explicitly allowing for expulsion. However, it can be terminated based on the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (1969), which outlines valid reasons for terminating treaties.
Termination Based on Violation of Treaty Obligations
In Article 2 of the North Atlantic Treaty, member states are required to “strengthen their free institutions” and maintain and develop their individual and collective capacity to resist armed attack. Hungary's current actions are a clear violation of these obligations. The government's declaration of the US as an enemy, its fawning over Putin's Russia, and its active weakening of NATO's common cause in Ukraine are all serious breaches of the treaty.
Fundamental Change of Circumstances
Under Article 62 of the Vienna Convention, a fundamental change of circumstances can be invoked to terminate a treaty. If Hungary's loyalty to NATO has clearly shifted, this could provide a legitimate basis for expulsion. Unlike the EU, any single member country, such as the United States, can take the decisive action of not recognizing Hungary as a member. This would make the expulsion process much simpler and more straightforward.
Geopolitical Context
The geopolitical context is also a significant factor in this discussion. While the immediate expulsion of Hungary from either organization might not happen overnight, it is certainly a possibility within the framework of international law. The actions of the Hungarian government under Orban have created a situation where the member states of NATO may decide to take action to restore the alliance's cohesion and security.
Furthermore, the involvement of Russia, via a potential invitation from Moscow, adds another layer of complexity. Such an invitation could create deep divisions within the EU and NATO, particularly with the potential offer of Ukrainian land to Hungary. This scenario would exacerbate tensions and potentially hasten the expulsion process.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while the expulsion of Hungary from the EU is a complex and legally challenging process, the situation with NATO is more straightforward. The North Atlantic Treaty does not explicitly allow for expulsion, but the combination of obligations and the potential for fundamental change in circumstances makes it a feasible scenario if the US and other member states decide to take decisive action. The geopolitical context and the actions of the Hungarian government underscore the importance of adhering to treaty obligations and maintaining the integrity of both organizations.