Would Britain and France's War Declaration Against Germany Influence Hitler's Attack on Russia?
Many historical narratives suggest that the declarations of war by Britain and France against Germany in 1939 had minimal impact on the subsequent events of World War II. This article explores an alternative scenario, questioning whether a different turn of events might have led to a vastly different outcome, specifically whether the attack on the Soviet Union would have occurred in June 1941 if Britain and France had not declared war against Germany in September 1939.
Historical Context and the Allied Declarations of War
By the time Germany launched its offensive against the Soviet Union on June 22, 1941, the western powers had already declared war on Germany on September 3, 1939. However, it is important to note that at the time of the Allied declarations, Germany and the Soviet Union were allies, not enemies. The German invasion of Poland on September 1, 1939, was followed by the Soviet invasion of Poland on September 17, 1939, which hastened the Allied declarations of war.
The narrative of the Soviet Union as an ally by the end of the war often overshadows the fact that, initially, Stalin was a strategic ally of Nazi Germany. The Hitler-Stalin Pact of 1939, known as the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, provided a temporary ceasefire between Germany and the Soviet Union. This alliance was based on the mutual desire to avoid a two-front war while they both sought to expand their influence.
The Realities of the Alliance
The Soviet Union’s role during the early stages of World War II is often debated. It is clear that Stalin’s intentions and actions were complex. The pact with Germany was an attempt to deter an immediate attack from the west, but it also allowed Germany to focus its military efforts on the Polish front without fear of a simultaneous Soviet invasion.
Germany and the Soviet Union worked in concert to divide Poland and secure resources. However, as soon as Germany’s objectives in Europe were largely achieved with the defeat of Poland, the alliance became strained. Germany’s continued aggression and the eventual invasion of the Soviet Union on June 22, 1941, marked a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape.
Imagining an Alternative Scenario
If Britain and France had refrained from declaring war on Germany in 1939, several scenarios could have unfolded:
1. Hitler's Strategic Calculations
Hitler’s original plans for Lebensraum (living space) were aimed at the Soviet Union. His speech to the German Reichstag in January 1939 made it clear that his ultimate goal was to expand German territory eastward, particularly into territories controlled by the Soviet Union.
Without the immediate confrontation from the west, Hitler’s military could have focused entirely on the eastern front. The absence of the Allied pressure might have provided Germany with a more favorable environment to launch an attack on the Soviet Union.
2. The Role of the Soviet Union
Stalin’s alliance with Germany was pragmatic rather than ideological. By maintaining the peace, he hoped to gain time to prepare the Soviet Union for war. The alliance was a way to avoid a two-front war, but it did not deter the Nazis’ ambitions against the Soviet Union.
If Britain and France had not declared war, the political balance in Europe might have shifted, potentially leading to a scenario where Germany and the Soviet Union continued their uneasy alliance or even deepened it further. This could have given Hitler more leverage to push for further territorial expansion without immediate resistance from the west.
3. The Impact on the Balance of Power
Britain’s foreign policy since the 17th century was rooted in maintaining the balance of power in Europe. Any significant power center would be opposed by British interests. If Germany had managed to defeat the Soviet Union and establish control over vast resources, this would have created a severe threat to Britain's strategic interests.
A stronger Germany could have challenged British dominion over global resources and territories. The fear of a potential superpower would have compelled the British to intervene sooner rather than later.
Conclusion
The historical events leading up to the invasion of the Soviet Union by Germany are complex and multifaceted. The declarations of war by the Allied powers in 1939 did minimal to halt the progression of Hitler’s ambitions. An alternate scenario in which Britain and France had not declared war on Germany might have led to a different geopolitical landscape, potentially influencing the timing and outcome of the invasion of the Soviet Union.
Ultimately, the geopolitical realities of the time meant that the Soviet Union and Germany would eventually collide due to ideological and strategic disagreements. The importance of the Allied declarations of war should not be underestimated, but the end goal of the Soviet Union and Germany in Eastern Europe was clear: the Lebensraum agenda and the establishment of a new power balance in Europe.