Will We See a Third Wave of Coronavirus Cases in the U.S.?
Since the first wave of coronavirus cases in the U.S. shows no sign of abating, it is premature to speculate about a third wave nationally. However, the situation should be analyzed on a state-by-state and city-by-city basis. Some regions have managed to bring their infection rates under control, while others continue to struggle. Importantly, for the United States as a whole, the first wave has not yet subsided, still echoing through the epidemic landscape like a powerful tsunami momentarily at its peak before receding.
Comparisons with Europe
Europe provides valuable comparative insights. The United Kingdom (UK) has faced one wave, but neighboring countries like Spain and France are now witnessing a second rise in cases and deaths, which may evolve into a second wave. The continuously updated statistics and charts from these regions offer a grim but informative picture of the coronavirus's impact.
Trends in Populated Areas
If historical patterns hold true, high-prevalence areas that experienced explosive growth and subsequent recession, such as New York City, Miami-Dade County, Dallas-Fort Worth, and LA County, are likely to maintain relatively low viral prevalence. In these places, once infection rates reached between 20% and 30%, they plateaued and began to fall. This pattern was evident on the Diamond Princess cruise and the USS Roosevelt earlier this year, suggesting limited susceptibility to infection by Sars-Cov2 in mixed populations.
This phenomenon could also significantly lower the so-called “herd immunity” threshold in these areas. However, it remains to be confirmed due to the preprint status of the related papers, which have not yet undergone peer review. Despite this uncertainty, the growth and recession curve has been repeated consistently worldwide since the onset of spring, with no examples of regions exceeding 25% infected rates and then experiencing a subsequent outbreak.
New York City Case Study
New York City provides a telling example. With over 500,000 confirmed cases in a metropolitan area of nearly 9 million people, one might assume the city would have run out of susceptible individuals to infect. Contrary to this expectation, the infection rate peaked on April 11, 2020, and has been declining ever since, albeit slower from early July. This sustained decline occurred as the city gradually reopened, indicating that once the peak is reached, the infection rate can sustainably fall even as lockdown measures are lifted.
In conclusion, while a third wave remains a possibility, the evidence suggests that regions that have managed to reach a certain level of infection and subsequently experienced a decline may be less vulnerable to a resurgence. Nevertheless, vigilance and appropriate public health measures remain crucial to manage the ongoing pandemic effectively.