Will Putin’s Anschluss of Belarus Unfold as in the Early 20th Century?

Recently, there has been increasing speculation that Russia’s President Putin may seek to annex Belarus, much like Adolf Hitler did with Austria in the early 20th century. This raises critical questions about the potential outcomes and the geopolitical landscape that would result from such an action. Let's explore the latest developments and the complexities surrounding this scenario.

The Current State of Affairs

Belarus is already closely integrated with Russia, both economically and politically. The current situation is maintained through the leadership of Alexander Lukashenko. However, if Lukashenko loses power, the question remains: would there be widespread support in Belarus for joining Russia? The historical comparison with Austria shows that the situation might not be as simple as annexing Belarus akin to Anschluss.

Support for Joining Russia

Hitler was able to swiftly integrate Austria into Nazi Germany (Anschluss) because of the existing economic and political ties. Similarly, many argue that Lukashenko’s regime, despite its corruption, has allowed him to maintain power through economic benefits and patronage. Today, Lukashenko's popularity is waning, and it is uncertain how much support there would be in Belarus for a full integration with Russia. The loss of Lukashenko might lead to a more unpredictable political landscape.

Political Challenges and Risks

Putin faces a delicate balancing act. On one hand, he needs to support Lukashenko to maintain stability in the region; on the other hand, it may be necessary to gradually integrate Belarus to strengthen Russia's position. This delicate situation is similar to Putin's stance towards the former little dictators who were once allies but are now more aligned with the West.

Geopolitical Concerns

Annexing Belarus would cause significant geopolitical shifts. If Lukashenko were to be forced out, Russia would lose its 'buffer state' role as Belarus is a non-NATO member. However, the opposition to Lukashenko could trigger civil unrest, complicating Russia’s objectives. Belarus has a complicated history with Russia, but it is not comparable to theSeekBar on Crimea, which had strong historical and political ties to Russia.

Current Analysis and Future Projections

According to Russian media and strategic analyses, Putin has shown no immediate interest in formally annexing Belarus. He aims to maintain control through a more flexible approach, supporting Lukashenko’s regime rather than attempting an Anschluss. There are rational reasons behind this strategy:

Strategic Benefits and Risks

For Russia, annexing Belarus wouldn't provide significant strategic advantages. It would also trigger widespread international condemnation and potential economic sanctions. Maintaining Lukashenko’s regime ensures a certain level of geopolitical stability in the region. Lukashenko, while imperfect, is still a key ally for Moscow. Any attempt to overthrow him could lead to unrest and could be seen as a inward-looking move, which is not in Russia's interests.

Conclusion

The conclusion is that, in the immediate future, Putin is more likely to support Lukashenko to avoid the complications of an Anschluss. This strategy aligns with Russia's broader geopolitical goals of maintaining stability and preventing further Western influence in Belarus. While the situation remains complex and fluid, it is highly unlikely that an Anschluss scenario will unfold anytime soon.