Will Indonesia Survive Until 2030? Challenges and Resilience
The question of Indonesia's survival has been a recurring theme in both its own political discourse and international observations. Many have speculated about the viability of the nation, but its resilience over the decades has been proven time and again. This article delves into the historical and contemporary challenges that Indonesia has faced and continues to face, highlighting how the nation has managed to persevere.
Historical Context
After gaining independence in 1945 from the Dutch, Indonesia faced significant challenges. The Dutch, harboring a grudge against the newly formed republic, predicted that Indonesia would not survive and would break into smaller states. However, as we know, Indonesia proved them wrong. The period following independence was marked by a series of struggles, including the Second Dutch military aggression, the Arafura waters conflict, hyperinflation, malaria riots, and internal rebellions, all of which could have easily precipitated the collapse of the nation.
Economic Crisis 1997
The economic crisis in 1997, which brought down the Rupiah to its lowest level, led to the end of Soeharto’s regime. This was followed by mass riots in 1998, one of the darkest moments in Indonesia's history. Even neighboring countries and international observers predicted the collapse of Indonesia. Singapore and Australia prepared emergency plans to accommodate refugees, but as history showed, Indonesia did not fall apart. Instead, it managed to stabilize and improve over the following years.
Recent Challenges
From 1999 to 2010, Indonesia again faced a series of challenges, including the East Timor case, internal conflicts like the GAM rebellion, OPM, and Ambon conflict, and Maluku separatism. Foreign observers were convinced that these conflicts would lead to the country's collapse. For instance, Japan refused to buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) products from Indonesia, believing it was a sign of impending collapse. However, Indonesia continued to stand strong and make progress.
Current Concerns
Today, the rise of Islamic fundamentalism and regional political sentiments have raised fears that Indonesia might face similar challenges that led to the predictions of its collapse. When former Indonesian politician Ahok was deposed, some predicted that his supporters would declare independence. However, as we can see now, Indonesia has remained strong and united. The government, along with its citizens, will not let any faction plot to disrupt the unity and security of the nation go unchecked.
Resilience and Future Outlook
Indonesia's resilience has been demonstrated time and again, from the early days of independence to the economic crisis of 1997 and the internal conflicts of the 1990s and 2000s. These experiences have tested the nation, but it has successfully navigated through these challenges. The latest political and economic challenges have not deterred the country's progress. With sustained efforts and unity, Indonesia is likely to survive and thrive until and beyond 2030.
Conclusion
Indonesia's survival and resilience are a testament to its people's strength and unity. From historical challenges to recent political and economic concerns, the nation has shown remarkable perseverance. It is unlikely that the nation will collapse in 2030, especially not due to the opinions of certain individuals or political figures. Instead, Indonesia will continue to be a resilient and growing nation, poised to face the future with confidence and determination.