Why Demanding a Vote for Catalonia Would Not Lead to Independence

In the ongoing debate about Catalonia's independence, it is often suggested that granting Catalans the right to hold a referendum would resolve the issue. However, several factors suggest that such a vote might not yield the desired outcome, let alone lead to a clear path toward independence.

Public Opinion and Referendum Desirability

Only 30% of Catalans consider it indispensable to hold a referendum on separation, while 70% see it as more important to improve relations with the rest of Spain. This indicates a significant portion of the Catalan population is focused on collaboration rather than division. According to polls, 80% of Catalans wish for negotiations to begin immediately, reflecting a broad desire for dialogue and unity.

Global Precedents and Constitutional Frameworks

Not all constitutional democracies grant the right of secession to states, regions, or provinces. Even countries renowned for referendums, like Switzerland, do not authorize such referendums on the secession of a given canton. In all such constitutional democracies, sovereignty over any region resides in the national government or constitution. This is a vital point, as it highlights the inherent limitations in the current global framework for addressing secessionist movements.

Historical Voting Trends and Political Realities

Recent elections in Catalonia show a clear pattern. In the last general election on November 10th, pro-separatist parties received only 40.8% of the casted ballots and 31.6% of the eligible voters. This percentage is consistently lower than the overall percentage of the population that sees it as crucial to a referendum on separation.

Furthermore, the separatist leaders from ERC and JPC, the main parties advocating for Catalan independence, have now shifted their focus to disputing power internally. The separation agenda is no longer a central point of consensus or political strategy.

Scenario-Based Analysis

It is hypothesized that if a referendum were to be legally declared by Spanish Justice, the outcome could be a tight victory for either side. But let us consider a few hypothetical referendums:

Referendum 1: Results are 52% against independence and 48% for it. Referendum 2: The results are reversed, with 52% for independence and 48% against. Referendum 3: The opposing 'Go back to Spain' parties request another referendum. If the same 52% to 48% split holds, what should be the next step? If the same split occurs again, the question arises: Should they give up on their independence goal or plan another referendum?

History and human nature suggest that repeated attempts to gain independence through referendums could lead to fatigue and apathy among the electorate. The possibility of seeing the same results after multiple referendums might lead to a revised political strategy or a recognition of the need for unity and cooperation.

Conclusion

The pursuit of independence through referendums faces significant challenges, both in terms of public sentiment and the broader constitutional framework. Instead of focusing on a divisive referendum, it may be more constructive for both Catalonia and Spain to engage in dialogue and explore cooperative solutions that respect the interests of all.