Why Can't Ukraine Retake Crimea: The Complexity of Recapturing Lost Territory
The question of retaking Crimea is often oversimplified as a matter of military strength, but it is much more complex than that. It involves not just the 'taking' but the 'holding' of a region that has been fortified and reorganized over a decade under Russian control. This article delves into the challenges faced by Ukraine in reclaiming its lost territory and the strategic complexities involved.
Ukrainian Challenges: The Reality of Military Superiority
The assertion that Russia's military is superior to Ukraine's, and that Zelensky is a 'retard,' reflects a misunderstanding of the situation. While Russia does have a formidable military presence, including over 1.2 million ground troops, the most advanced air defense systems, and a significant navy, these advantages alone do not guarantee victory. The ability to 'take' Crimea also requires the ability to 'hold' it, and this is far more complex than it appears.
The Strategic Landscape: Decades of Fortification
A Decade of Russian military build-up in Crimea has transformed the region into a strategically significant and effectively fortified territory. Troops, fortifications, and advanced military systems have been deployed throughout the region, making it extremely difficult for Ukraine to launch a successful military operation. This build-up has created a complex terrain that limits the routes and maneuvering options available to Ukrainian forces.
For instance, the absence of bridges across a significant river further complicates any potential advance. Ukrainian forces would need to not only cross this river but also continuously supply forces across it, an arduous and logistically challenging task. The Russian force in Crimea is not just a passive defense force; it is a well-established and well-armed militia ready to engage in sustained combat operations.
Strategic Planning: The Importance of Effective Decision-Making
The real challenge lies in strategic planning. Effective military operations are not just about having superior weapons and troops, but also about making the right decisions and planning for every contingency. The objective is not just to 'take' territory but to 'hold' it and create a sustainable administrative and economic system within the territory. This requires a comprehensive and nuanced approach, including psychological operations, political engagement, and economic control.
The impact of US restrictions on the use of American weapons in Ukraine also plays a crucial role. President Biden's decision to restrict the use of certain weapons, such as Himars with a range of 60 km, has limited Ukraine's ability to control the immediate vicinity of Russian advances. Ukraine has requested significant military aid to defend itself against Russian attacks, but the aid provided has been largely ineffective due to its outdated nature and limited range.
Conclusion: A Path Forward
While Ukraine faces significant challenges in retaking Crimea, the situation is not without hope. Effective strategic planning, supported by intelligent use of limited resources, can turn the tide. It is crucial for Ukraine to engage in a coordinated and comprehensive strategy that includes not only military but also political and economic aspects. By understanding and adapting to the complexities of the situation, Ukraine can work towards securing its future and regaining control over its lost territory.
The path to Crimea's recapture is challenging but not impossible. It requires a multifaceted approach and a deep understanding of the strategic landscape. Only then can Ukraine hope to reclaim its lost territory and restore its sovereignty over the entire region.