The Future of the Vermont Senate Seat

With the current political climate and recent political developments, the potential for Senator Patrick Leahy's position in the U.S. Senate to become vacant has brought to light an interesting question—will Republican Governor Phil Scott pick a Republican replacement if Senator Leahy dies?

Vermont State Law and Vacancies

Vermont state law clearly outlines the process for a U.S. Senate vacancy. If a U.S. Senator from Vermont resigns or is removed from office, the governor is required to schedule a special election within six months. However, the law also allows the governor to appoint an interim temporary Senator to serve until the special election is held and the winner is declared. This interim appointment typically serves as a placeholder until the regular election process is completed.

Phil Scott’s Political Affiliation and His Previous Stance

Despite being a Republican, Governor Phil Scott has a reputation known as 'Republican in Name Only' (RINO). His political decision-making often aligns more closely with Democrats, especially in his handling of recent political appointments. In October 2020, when it was speculated that Bernie Sanders might resign to join the Biden administration and Scott would need to appoint a temporary replacement, Governor Scott stated, 'I want this to be fair. So in this case again Sen. Sanders has caucused with the Democrats. I would anticipate I would look at a more left-leaning type of independent that would obviously caucus with the Democrats.' This indicates his inclination towards appointing someone with Democratic leanings.

Governor Scott’s Potential Action Plan

Given Governor Scott's current political leaning and the state law, it's plausible that he would be able to appoint a replacement Senator who would serve until the regularly elected Senator begins their term. A likely scenario is that Governor Scott might wait until after the November election and then appoint the Senate-elect, Democratic U.S. Rep. Peter Welch, to essentially begin his Senate service eight weeks early.

Implications for Senate President Pro Tempore

Senator Leahy not only holds a seat in the U.S. Senate but is also the Senate President Pro Tempore. In the event of his resignation, the Senate needs to elect a new President Pro Tempore. The traditional practice is to appoint the most senior majority party Senator. If the Democrats retain control of the Senate, the most likely choice would be Senator Diane Feinstein, who was previously forced out of her position as the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee. However, there is a possibility that Democrats could choose not to follow this tradition, leading to an interesting political debate within the Senate.

Conclusion

The rules for appointing a temporary Senator allow flexibility, and Governor Scott's personal political inclinations likely mean he will make a decision that aligns with Democratic leanings. The appointment could also impact the Senate President Pro Tempore, with the potential for a reshuffle. This scenario highlights the complex interplay of political power and personal beliefs in the American political system.