Who Profits from Romania Not Being Admitted into the Schengen Area?

The debate over Romania's admission—or lack thereof—into the Schengen area is a multifaceted issue, involving geopolitical, economic, and social dimensions. This article will explore the potential benefits that various stakeholders might derive from Romania's current status outside the Schengen zone. We also provide insights into the reasons behind Austria's decision and why this situation could be seen as a potential boon for the broader European Union in the long term.

Stakeholders and Gains

Competing Countries:

Other countries in the region may benefit from Romania's exclusion by attracting businesses, tourists, and investments that would otherwise flow into Romania if it were part of Schengen.

Domestic Political Groups:

In Romania, certain political factions might leverage the lack of Schengen membership to bolster nationalist sentiments and rally support or to frame it as a failure of the government.

Security Interests:

Some EU member states might argue that Romania's admission could pose security risks, particularly concerning border control and migration. These countries may benefit from maintaining stricter border policies to ensure their own security.

Economic Interests:

Businesses in countries that are currently in the Schengen area might benefit from the status quo if they have a competitive advantage in markets where Romania’s border checks and regulations can hinder their operations.

Influence of Non-EU Countries:

Non-EU countries that have interests in the region may benefit from Romania's exclusion by fostering relationships with Romania, which could be significantly impacted by its full integration into the EU.

While various actors might derive some form of benefit from Romania's non-admission to the Schengen area, the broader implications often involve trade-offs that affect many stakeholders across the European Union and beyond.

Immediate Benefits for Austria

In the short term, it appears that Russia could benefit from Romania's exclusion, as this would limit Romania's geopolitical influence in the region. However, I hope that in the long term, all EU members, including Romania, will benefit from improved security and better migration policies.

Circulated Theories

Currently, there are numerous theories circulating in Romanian media and public discussions regarding why Austria vetoed Romania's entry into the Schengen area. Here are some of the most popular opinions:

The Most Popular Theories

The Austrians Want More Commerical Concessions:
The theory suggests that Austria is demanding additional commercial concessions from Romania in exchange for Schengen membership, such as deep-sea or Black Sea gas. The Austrians Want Romania to Remain a Backward Economy:
Some speculate that Austria does not wish for Romania's economy to flourish, preferring it to be a second-class member. Austria's Border Control Needs:
Political analysts propose that Austria is using Romanias accession as a bargaining chip to push for European legislation on border control, particularly designed to address the migrant issue.

The Authentic Reason Behind the Veto

While these theories are widespread, the most plausible theory involves Austria's specific concerns about migratory flows. Here's a detailed explanation:

Austria and the Migrant Issue

For Austrian internal politics, the issue of illegal migration is highly sensitive. The country has seen increasing numbers of refugees and illegal migrants over the years. To gain votes, political parties that promise and deliver measures to reduce these numbers are more successful.

The Migrant Route Analysis

Research revealed that the main source of illegal migrants in Austria is from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India, and they follow a route: Turkey-Greece-North Macedonia/Albania-Serbia/Croatia-Hungary-Austria. Hungary, a Schengen border state, barely polices its borders effectively, which is why illegal migrants continue to flow through.

Why Croatia's Admission Matter

Croatia, despite being on the Balkan route, does not border Greece, which is the primary source of migrants. Therefore, even with Croatia in the Schengen area, migrants still had to pass through protected borders to reach the rest of the EU.

The Significance of Romania and Bulgaria's Admission

If Romania and Bulgaria joined the Schengen area, migrants would have an uninterrupted, borderless path to the heart of Europe from the moment they stepped on Greek soil. This was a major concern for Austria, as it would likely lead to an even larger number of illegal immigrants, exacerbating current migration issues.

Austria's Motive and the EU's Response

Austria used the Schengen veto to negotiate stronger border security measures and more flexibility in dealing with illegal economic migrants. The European Commission responded with a comprehensive action plan, including joint operations with Frontex, increased asylum capacity, and enhanced border controls in the Western Balkans.

In summary, the situation Austria created could actually lead to a more secure and effective migration policy for the EU in the long term, which would benefit Romania and Bulgaria once they join the Schengen area. It's an unintended consequence that might prove beneficial for all involved.