What Would the Ottomans Have Demanded if They Had Won the First Balkan War?
The First Balkan War, fought from October 1912 to May 1913, was a significant conflict that reshaped the political landscape of southeastern Europe. However, if the Ottoman Empire had emerged victorious instead of suffering a crushing defeat, the consequences would have been far-reaching. Let us explore what the Ottomans might have demanded in that hypothetical scenario.
The Historical Context
Following the Congress of Berlin in 1878, the Balkan states received significant autonomy but retained nominal Ottoman sovereignty. Post-1815, European powers, particularly the major ones like Britain, France, and Russia, became increasingly wary of Ottoman expansion, especially into Christian territories. The expulsion of Muslims from those regions further complicated the situation. In this context, any push by the Ottomans to reclaim control over the Balkan region would have faced severe opposition from these powers.
Possible Ottoman Demands
Evangelos Lolos, a notable Greek politician, has provided insightful commentary on what the Ottomans might have wanted if they had won. According to Lolos, the Ottomans would likely have demanded comprehensive control over the Balkan League territories and the reconquest of lost lands. However, the European powers would have been firmly opposed to such actions, particularly the post-1815 territorial demarcations.
Given the constraints of the Ottoman military and the consequences of occupying hostile regions, the Ottomans might have aimed for a more manageable outcome. They could have focused on obtaining heavy reparations, possibly creating buffer zones to secure their flank. The historical precedent of the Greco-Turkish War of 1897, where the Ottomans were forced to retreat due to international pressure, would have served as a warning.
Strategic Considerations
Even if the Ottoman military had achieved a decisive victory, they would have likely understood that occupying hostiles and rebellious territories was counterproductive. The Greco-Turkish War of 1897 had already demonstrated the futility of such an approach. Furthermore, any Ottoman advances would have provoked immediate intervention from the Great Powers, with the UK and France backing Greece, and Russia supporting Bulgaria and Serbia.
Indemnities and Border Adjustments
In a scenario where the Ottomans won, they would have likely settled for heavy reparations and perhaps minor border adjustments in their favor. The overall goal would have been to avoid direct occupation and to use negotiations as a tool to achieve their objectives. The League would have been required to pay a significant indemnity, and minor border changes might have been agreed upon to secure the Ottomans' position.
Such an outcome would have maintained a balance of power in the region, preventing the Ottoman Empire from reasserting control over the Balkans while still maintaining a degree of influence.
In conclusion, if the Ottoman Empire had won the First Balkan War, their demands would have been focused on reparations and buffer zones rather than full-scale occupation. This approach aligns with their historical strategies and the geopolitical realities of the time.