Voter Turnout in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election: Understanding the Numbers
When it comes to understanding the turnout of the 2016 U.S. presidential election, questions about how many eligible voters did not vote can provide valuable insights into the democratic process. However, determining this figure accurately is complex and requires an understanding of various statistical approaches and voter demographics.
The Estimation Process
The estimation of voter turnout in the 2016 election involves several steps and the use of demographics, population estimates, and voting statistics. The United States' voting population is constantly changing due to population growth, age distribution, and legal changes. Here’s a deeper look at the methodology:
Total Population and Voting Eligibility
The total population of the U.S. in 2016 was approximately 320 million. Out of this, only a specific portion is eligible to vote:
The estimated number of eligible voters was around 130 million. Most U.S. citizens must be 18 years or older to vote, thus, a SWAG (silly wild ass guess) of 25 million underage individuals leaves us with 240 million eligible voters.Therefore, the turnout rate for the 2016 election can be calculated as follows:
130 million votes / 240 million eligible voters 54.2 percent
Conversely, this means that approximately 110 million eligible voters did not vote in the 2016 presidential election.
Voter Turnout in 2020
The 2020 presidential election saw a significant increase in voter turnout, with approximately 175 million votes cast out of 248 million eligible voters. This results in a turnout rate of 70.6 percent, marking the highest voter turnout in over a century.
Key Questions and Statistic Denominators
Various questions and denominators are often used to understand voter turnout, but they each have their own complexities and limitations:
1. All Americans
Estimating how many "all Americans" did not vote is not particularly useful since it does not distinguish between different demographic groups. It simply provides a broad, superficial view of voting rates.
2. All Voting-Age Americans (18 )
While it is common to refer to the voting-age population (all citizens aged 18 and over), this figure of 45 percent is almost as meaningless as the previous estimate. It does not account for the population changes and legal qualifications.
3. All Voting-Eligible Enfranchised Citizens
Considering all voting-eligible citizens with a more robust denominator, we find that approximately 231 million eligible voters existed in 2016, with around 41 percent not voting. This is derived from accounting for population changes, naturalizations, and felony convictions that disenfranchise voters.
4. All Registered Voters
For a simpler count, considering all registered voters, the number is easier to determine. In 2016, there were about 157.6 million registered voters, with 13 percent not casting their ballots, equating to 13 million non-voters.
Conclusion
The process of determining voter turnout and identifying non-voters involves a nuanced understanding of population demographics, legal restrictions, and registration statistics. While the estimates can vary based on the chosen denominator, they all contribute to a more comprehensive picture of the voting behavior in the United States.
Understanding these numbers is crucial for assessing the health of the democratic process and identifying areas for improvement in future elections. By delving into the specific denominators and methodologies, we can gain valuable insights into the political engagement and response of the U.S. electorate.