Ukraine's Strategy in Defending Mariupol: A Bluff-Busting Reality

On March 20, 2022, Russia issued an ultimatum to Ukraine to surrender Mariupol. However, this decision is rooted in Russia's misguided strategy. In this article, we will analyze the facts and details that indicate Russia's bluff.

Facts Indicative of Russia's Bluff

tUkraine has more tanks today than they had at the start of the war. tUkraine is closing in on trapping about 10,000 Russian soldiers in a pocket. tAt least five Russian generals have been lost in a month. tThe West is sending vast numbers of anti-armor weapons. tThe Russian offensive is bogged down.

These facts are clear indicators that Russia is bluffing. It is only a matter of time before Ukrainian forces redeploy to relieve Mariupol. The city's defenses are bolstered by motivated and well-armed Ukrainian soldiers, against whom Russian artillery and unmotivated conscripts are at a disadvantage. The Ukrainian forces are well-entrenched and could effectively resist any Russian assault.

Trust and the Non-Acceptance of the Ultimatum

Given both distant and recent history, Ukraine does not trust Russia to honor its promises. Notably, Russia had promised that if the civilians in Mariupol were surrendered, they would be allowed to escape safely. However, this promise has been repeatedly broken in the past few weeks, reducing any incentive for the Ukrainians to accept the ultimatum.

Consequences of Russian Actions

Additionally, Russia's actions against Ukrainian civilians, such as sending them to Russian cities as forced labor, have taken away any incentive for Ukraine to surrender. These actions have only hardened Ukrainian resolve and strengthened their defensive capabilities.

The Ukrainian Strategy: A War of Attrition

It is more about Ukraine's strategy than their immediate capabilities. Ukraine is not focusing on long-term holding of the city, but on making the Russian offensive as costly as possible. Mariupol has become a strategic nightmare for Russia. The offences have bogged down, and there is no easy victory for Russia.

Ultimately, as the war of attrition continues, Russia may realize that it has walked into an even worse situation than its previous military misadventures, such as the Afghanistan debacle. Additionally, public sentiment may play a crucial role, as the Ukrainian population may step in to further resist Russian aggression.

Conclusion

The current situation in Mariupol is complex, with Ukraine holding a strategic upper hand against Russia. Trust and public sentiment are key factors in the ongoing conflict, and the Russian ultimatum is misinformed and unlikely to succeed. The true test will come in the form of the war of attrition Ukraine intends to wage.