The Likelihood of Delay or Cancellation of Israel’s Planned Assault on Rafah in Gaza

For now, it seems likely that Israel will proceed with its planned assault on Rafah in Gaza. However, the analysis below suggests that the operation could be delayed or even canceled for several compelling reasons.

Analysis of the Likelihood

There are multiple factors that suggest an assault on Rafah may be coming, but the decision to delay or cancel the operation is no less significant. It could mean a significant postponement of the attack, or it might even be canceled altogether.

According to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), delays in the Rafah assault are not a matter of 'if,' but 'how much longer.' The operation remains a critical goal, and the reasons for its delay are complex. Let's explore the factors at play.

Reasons for Delays

International Opposition and Political Considerations

Postponement of the Rafah assault could be tied to international opposition, particularly that of the Biden administration. The timing of Ramadan is also a factor, but it is a transitory one that will soon pass. However, the imminent arrival of Passover adds another layer of complexity to the Israeli decision-making process.

Domestic Pressures and Hostage Negotiations

Domestic political and military considerations also play a significant role. The chief Israeli leader behind the push for the Rafah operation is Benjamin Netanyahu. Despite his insistence that the operation will proceed and that none of the aforementioned obstacles will stop it, the IDF's actions in Gaza have been less than aggressive.

As of now, IDF troop levels in Gaza are at their lowest point since operations began. There has been no movement of Palestinian civilians, and the camps to house them haven't been built. Reservists required for the operation have not been mobilized. Furthermore, Israeli representatives are engaging in limited and seemingly ineffective talks with Pentagon officials.

The Pentagon Plan

The Pentagon has proposed a plan that involves the IDF isolating and potentially even supplying Hamas in Rafah while conducting occasional targeted raids. This plan was swiftly leaked, likely by Israelis who recognized its foolishness. The leaked plan included the idea of establishing a joint IDF/US headquarters for approving and coordinating operations.

It is unclear whether the IDF is interested in the Pentagon's plan. If the IDF sees value in the plan's support and coordination, it might proceed. However, the links between the IDF and the Pentagon are strong, and cooperation could be beneficial in the event of a broader conflict with Lebanon.

Decreasing Likelihood of Execution

The longer the delay, the less likely the Rafah operation becomes. Countless factors, both foreseeable and unforeseeable, could derail the operation before it begins. Recent accidental incidents, such as the involvement of aid workers aligned with a celebrity chef, are a case in point.

Until the IDF actually initiates the operation in Rafah, all talks and plans remain speculative. At this point, the likelihood of the operation occurring is about 50-50.

Conclusion

Despite the strong rhetoric and support from Netanyahu, the IDF's actions thus far suggest that the Rafah assault may still face significant delays or even cancellation. The interplay of political, military, and international factors makes the future of this operation uncertain.