The Impact of Russia Not Selling Alaska to the USA: Alternative Futures of North America

The decision of Russia to sell Alaska to the USA in 1867, commonly known as DOI (Dollar-very-Interesting) by its critics, has long been debated. Was it a smart move to make sure the territory did not end up in the British Empire's hands, or was it simply an act of desperation during a time when Russia lacked the resources to defend it effectively? Exploring what North America would look like if the Russian Empire had not sold Alaska to the USA and if Britain had kept its claim on the Oregon territory, opens a fascinating window into the alternative futures that historical events can pull.

Defensive Considerations and the Russian Decision

During the mid-19th century, Russia's decision to sell Alaska to the United States was made primarily due to its strategic and economic limitations. The Russian Empire was unable to effectively defend Alaska and was aware that eventual control by the British might lead to destabilizing tensions with the USA. The sale provided Russia with financial relief, with the prospect of preventing a stronger adversary from obtaining the territory.

Possible Scenarios and Their Outcomes

Scenario 1: British Empire’s Influence

One possible scenario is that Britain would have claimed Alaska, likely integrating it as part of the Canadian territory. This outcome would have solidified British influence in North America, potentially altering the geopolitical landscape and intensifying tensions with the USA. This possibility is supported by the historical context, as the British Empire was a dominant global power and would have sought to expand its influence wherever possible. The sale to the USA was partly driven by the need to counter British expansion.

Scenario 2: Russian Annexation and Civil War Survival

A second scenario suggests that Russia could have retained control over Alaska and used it as a refuge during the Russian Civil War. The onset of the White movement could have been facilitated by a safe haven in Alaska, isolated from the Bolsheviks and subject to an Allied naval blockade that prevented further Communist advances. In this case, the territory would have remained a strategic asset for Russia, potentially triggering further conflicts and red scares within the USA and elsewhere.

Scenario 3: Japanese Rule in Alaska

Another hypothetical scenario involves Japan taking control of Alaska, following their decisive victories over Russia in the Russo-Japanese War of 1905. Japan’s naval superiority, such as the annihilation of the Russian fleet at Tsushima, suggests an expansionist potential also in Alaska. The territory would have remained sparsely populated and lacking significant developmental efforts, but its strategic importance could have had significant geopolitical implications. This scenario could lead to a direct confrontation between Japan and the USA or Britain, drastically altering the course of the Pacific War.

Conclusion: The Long-Term Implications

In conclusion, the sale of Alaska to the USA was not merely a financial transaction but a strategic decision with far-reaching consequences. If Russia had not sold Alaska, the territory would have most likely become part of Canada, solidifying British influence. Alternatively, Japan's potential control over Alaska could have triggered a new set of conflicts in the Pacific region, reshaping the geopolitical map of North America and affecting the course of World War II.

Exploring these scenarios provides an interesting reflection on the interconnected nature of historical events and their broader implications. It can serve as a reminder of how seemingly small decisions can have profound and lasting impacts on the world's political landscape.