The Future of Nagorno-Karabakh: Azerbaijan’s Control and Russian Influence
The ongoing geopolitical dynamics in the Nagorno-Karabakh region have been the subject of much discussion and debate. Since the ceasefires and agreements reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan following the 2020 war, the situation has evolved significantly. This article aims to clarify the current status and the expected future trajectory of the territory, while also examining the role of external influences such as Russia.
The Current State of Nagorno-Karabakh
Currently, Azerbaijan has complete control over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. This control follows the large-scale military conflict that began in late 2020 and resulted in the recovery of the region by Azerbaijan's forces. Initially, Nagorno-Karabakh was under the control of Armenian separatists following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and this situation remained largely unchanged until the 2020 conflict.
Azerbaijan's control is recognized both legally and effectively. The strategic importance of unifying the two territories (Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan proper) cannot be understated. This move facilitates easier economic integration, improved transportation networks, and enhanced movement for Azerbaijan's citizens.
Russia’s Strategic Role and Withdrawal
One crucial factor in the current dynamic is the role of Russia. Being a significant power in the region, Russia has many strategic interests in the Caucasus, including energy resources and regional stability. Initially, Russia had a "non-interference" policy, allowing Azerbaijan to take control of Nagorno-Karabakh. However, as the conflict subsided, Russia maintained a position of influence through its military presence and negotiations.
There are speculations that Russia will gradually withdraw its military presence from the area. This drawdown, expected to occur in a year or so, will likely lead to a more definitive incorporation of Nagorno-Karabakh into Azerbaijan. The process may be met with resistance from the Armenian population and separatists, which could result in forced expulsion of those unwilling to become Azerbaijani citizens.
Legal and Territorial Status
From a legal standpoint, the situation has become clearer. The international community generally recognizes Azerbaijan's sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the final legal and territorial status is still the subject of negotiations, predominantly between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Russian-mediated Astana process and the Madrid Principles have provided frameworks for these discussions, but progress remains slow.
The agreements between Armenia and Azerbaijan concerning the territorial borders have been signed, but their enforcement and implementation have been complex. Russia, as a mediator and player with vested interests, has played a crucial role in facilitating these negotiations. Yet, the autonomy of Nagorno-Karabakh within Azerbaijan remains a contentious issue.
Conclusion
The future of Nagorno-Karabakh is likely to see increased integration into Azerbaijan, with some challenges and uncertainties along the way. The removal of Russian influence will be a pivotal moment, potentially leading to a more definitive resolution of the territorial issue. While the process will undoubtedly face opposition, the legal and effective control Azerbaijan has over the region makes the endgame a certainty.
As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, monitoring the advancements in negotiations and the moves of major players, particularly Russia, will be essential. The resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute will have significant implications not only for the region but also for broader regional security and stability.