The Elusive Grip: Putin’s Power in Russia
The question of whether Putin’s power in Russia is weakening or strengthening has been a contentious one. However, a closer examination reveals that Putin’s hold on power is neither solidifying nor weakening; it is currently hanging by a precarious thread, teetering on the brink. This precarious balance is not just a matter of public opinion but is fundamentally tied to the internal power dynamics within Russia’s security and military apparatus.
Understanding Russia’s Dictatorial System
Dictatorships, by their very nature, are inherently flawed. Unlike democratic systems where decisions are made through collective wisdom and checks and balances, dictatorships rely on a single person's authority. This concentration of power comes with inherent inefficiencies and corruption. Top-tier officials, often referred to as Siloviki, are trusted proxies who provide support for the dictator but do so with their own selfish interests in mind. Their support is conditional and can be withdrawn at any moment.
In the case of Russia, Siloviki play a crucial role. They include former and current security, military, and intelligence personnel. This group wields significant influence over the country’s political and military decisions. Putin’s power, therefore, depends on their support and loyalty. The recent events surrounding the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin provide a stark reminder of the delicate balance of power in Russia.
The Disappearance of Yevgeny Prigozhin
The death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the controversial leader of the Wagner Group, is a pivotal moment in Putin’s power dynamics. Prigozhin's death raises significant questions about the fate of the Russian military and political leadership. The apparent support of the Wagner Group, an independent military contractor, with skepticism from many Russian soldiers, indicates rising discontent within the ranks.
Many observers believe that Prigozhin was killed with the approval of Putin. As President Joe Biden has stated, "There's not much that happens in Russia that Putin's not behind." This assertion highlights the grip Putin has on Russian affairs, yet it also underscores the calculated nature of his actions. Putin’s response to Prigozhin's unrest, which included sacking key figures and intimidating others, shows his strategic approach to maintaining control.
Ambiguous Survival and Power Strikes
Putin’s survival strategy involves a series of calculated moves aimed at maintaining loyalty within his Siloviki circle. For instance, the removal of key figures like General Sergei Surovikin demonstrates Putin's willingness to act decisively to quell dissent. However, these actions are ultimately aimed at reasserting his authority rather than showcasing an unassailable power.
Timofey Vorobyov, in his post, wrote: "On the surface it looks like a clear win for Putin-Shoigu-Gerasimov group. But as it happens in Russia we only see the tip of the iceberg. There could be other figures on the board that we know very little about. Zolotov, Bortnikov, Patrushev - these people control those who guard Putin. This time they chose to save him. But next time their allegiance may vary." This statement underscores the unpredictable nature of Russian politics and the fragility of Putin's position.
Conclusion
The recent events in Russia point to a complex and ever-shifting power dynamic. Putin’s power is neither weakening nor strengthening in a traditional sense; rather, it is in a state of constant negotiation and reassertion. His success will depend on his ability to maintain control over his Siloviki circle and quell any emerging dissent. As long as he can do that, Putin's power will remain elusive and uncertain, always teetering on the edge of stability.