The Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea: A Snapshot of Storm Activity in 2020
The Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea witnessed an unusual number of storms in 2020. While many suggest that these occurrences are linked to climate change, the reality is more complex. This article delves into the reasons behind the increase in storm activity and provides a historical context to help understand the current situation.
Statistical Fluctuations and La Ni?a
The increase in storm activity observed in 2020 can be attributed to statistical fluctuations and the ongoing La Ni?a phenomenon in the Pacific.
‘Statistical fluctuations’ refer to natural variations that occur within any large dataset. These variations can cause more or fewer storms in any given year, independent of long-term trends. The La Ni?a phenomenon is a climate pattern characterized by cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern-central Pacific Ocean. This can affect weather patterns in other parts of the world, leading to more active storm seasons in the Atlantic and Caribbean.
Historical Storm Patterns
Let’s explore the historical context of storm activity in the Atlantic and Caribbean. Data shows that the average number of storms recorded per year since 1851 is 9.45. However, the ability to accurately record early storms is limited, making these numbers potentially lower.
With the advent of weather satellites in the 1960s, the recording of storms improved significantly. By 1997, the average number of storms per year increased to 15.625.
Of the 24 storm seasons from 1997 to 2020, only three had 10 or fewer storms. Out of the remaining 21 seasons, 14 were lower than average, with 15 or fewer storms. These variations suggest that the increase in storm activity in 2020, while notable, is not unprecedented. Historical records show that the worst years and intensities were in the past, indicating that the current storm activity is part of a broader pattern of natural variability.
Role of Sea Surface Temperature
A key factor influencing storm activity is the sea surface temperature (SST) across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean. When these temperatures are higher than average, fewer Atlantic tropical cyclones tend to form. Conversely, when temperatures are lower than average, more storms are observed.
In 2020, the SST in the eastern-central Pacific was lower than average, leading to more active storm conditions in the Atlantic and Caribbean. However, in 2019, the region experienced higher-than-average SSTs and still recorded 20 storms, illustrating the complexity of these weather phenomena.
Weather vs. Climate
It is important to distinguish between weather and climate. Weather includes phenomena like hurricanes, which can be intense and unpredictable. Climate, on the other hand, encompasses average conditions over a longer period. The occurrence of these storms in June through November is not unusual, as they can happen in any month and have caused fatalities at various times throughout the year.
Hurricanes are a weather event, and their frequency and intensity can fluctuate significantly from year to year. The pattern of increased storm activity in recent years does not necessarily indicate long-term climate change. Instead, it is one of the many natural variations that characterize our planet’s weather systems.
The Historical Context
The most destructive hurricanes in recorded history include Deng-wrap in 1822, Assam Cyclone in 1891, and the Telom Updates of 1897. These storms demonstrate that severe weather events have occurred in the past and continue to do so, highlighting that the current situation is within the range of historical variability.
While the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea saw an increase in storm activity in 2020, this does not represent the worst year ever. Many other years in history have been worse, and the exact causes of these variations are still subject to ongoing study and analysis.
Conclusion
Understanding the factors behind the increased storm activity in 2020 helps to place the current situation in a broader context of natural variability. While the current conditions are noteworthy, they are not indicative of long-term climate change. The role of statistical fluctuations and the La Ni?a phenomenon provide valuable insights into the dynamics of these weather patterns. In the future, ongoing research will continue to shed light on the complex interplay between climate and weather, helping us better prepare for and respond to these natural phenomena.