Mid-East Conflict: NATO Allies Standardly Watching as Regional Powers Clash

The Middle East remains a complex and volatile region, with numerous global powers and local factions clashing for control and influence. Among the significant conflicts is the battle for Aleppo, where Turkey, the United States, Britain, and France find themselves largely on the sidelines, each engaged in its own strategic concerns.

The Turkeys Strike

Turkey, a NATO ally, has engaged in aggressive military operations against the Syrian regime. In response to the crisis, President Erdogan has made bold and controversial statements, including promises to “enter Israel.” Such statements have further strained relations within NATO and raised questions about the alliance's cohesion and shared objectives.

Since the initial pledge, Turkey has shown no inclination to follow through with its threats. Instead, it continues to conduct military operations in Syria, often focusing on areas that align with its strategic interests rather than directly supporting Islamist rebels in Aleppo. This strategic calculation is part of Turkey's broader effort to assert its influence in the region and counter Iran's growing influence.

The NATO Alliance and Its Dividends

By default, NATO allies such as the United States, Britain, and France support Turkey, their strategic alliance. However, this does not mean they are directly involved in the conflict in Syria. The Western public remains largely unaware of the true nature of the regime Turkey supports, led by President Erdogan, who presides over a regime reminiscent of a Fuhrer-like authoritarianism.

Turkey's strategic move to provoke Hezbollah and Iran has backfired, leading to significant losses for Iran on the ground in Syria. As a result, Hezbollah and the Syrian regime cannot adequately support rebels in Aleppo. The existential need for peace between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as for the Syrian regime to make peace with Israel, remains out of reach due to the regime's inability to achieve these goals.

The Role of Other Global Powers

While the US, Britain, and France observe the conflict from a distance, they are not entirely passive. They are, in effect, 'buying popcorn,' watching the regional powers fight it out and weakening each other. This strategic non-intervention suits their broader interests, allowing them to maintain a low profile while observing the outcome of the conflict.

Interestingly, a third party benefits from this situation: the Kurdish de facto state in northeastern Syria. The ongoing conflict between the Assad regime and Turkey, with support from Russia and the United States respectively, serves to weaken both sides and leaves the Kurdish state as a stabilizing force. Despite not lifting a finger, the Kurds find themselves in a position of strength, with the battle between al-Assad and al-Qaeda/Turkey benefitting their de facto state.

Conclusion

The Syrian conflict remains a breeding ground for geopolitical maneuvering, with actors from around the world vying for influence. The role of NATO allies such as the US, Britain, and France, and the strategic moves of Turkey, is a testament to the complex dynamics of the region. As the conflict continues, the region will undoubtedly see further shifts in power and influence.