Introduction

On May 23, 2021, Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenkos made international headlines when he ordered a Ryanair plane to land in Minsk with the intention of arresting an outspoken critic who happened to be on board. This brazen act of political repression has had far-reaching consequences. After this incident, the international community predicted a series of counters from Lukashenkos – particularly more instances of hijacking planes to arrest critics. However, that narrative has not materialized, as aviation authorities have been vigilant in ensuring planes do not land without proper clearance. This article explores Lukashenkos recent actions and the implications for Belarus and the global community.

Lukashenko's Deterrent Measures

Following the Ryanair incident, Lukashenkos threats to hijack more planes and arrest individuals have not been realized. Instead, air traffic authorities have been closely monitoring flights. As a result, Belarus is now a much safer space for air travel. Despite this détente, Lukashenkos stature on the international stage remains precarious. In response to potential sanctions, he has demanded compensation for the investigative costs incurred by Belarusian authorities. These costs include the expenses of the Ministry of Emergencies, the Ministry of Health, sappers, dog handlers, and anti-terror units that were deployed during the incident.

While Lukashenkos recent rhetoric suggests he still holds a hard-line stance, it is clear that his international support has diminished. The West, in particular, is unlikely to be swayed by such demands for financial reimbursement. This shift in the dynamics of the situation highlights the vulnerability of Lukashenko’s regime.

Border Closures and Collective Punishment

In a concerning move, Lukashenkos government has closed the land border with Ukraine. This measure is reminiscent of North Koreas isolationist policies - sealing off the country from the outside world. By turning Belarus into a more isolated country, the regime hopes to shield itself from international scrutiny and potential sanctions. However, this strategy of collective punishment is profoundly damaging to the ordinary citizens of Belarus. It also raises ethical and humanitarian concerns. If the border closures continue, Lukashenko may ultimately resort to other extreme measures, such as declaring martial law, to maintain control.

The Cost of Political Resilience

Belarus has long held the dubious distinction of being among the world's most authoritarian regimes. Lukashenko's decision to renounce nuclear weapons in the 1990s was seen as a positive step towards his country's integration into the international community. However, instead of using diplomacy and international cooperation to bolster his regime, Lukashenko has chosen a more confrontational path. He has stubbornly maintained his grip on power through fear and intimidation.

The most pressing concern now is the fate of the individuals arrested during the Ryanair incident. Lukashensko should immediately release these individuals, apologize to the passengers and Ryanair, and offer some form of compensation. Providing each passenger with a 200-ruble gift card for a duty-free shop at Minsk Airport and 1000 rubles for the crew would be a practical and humane solution. This gesture would not only acknowledge the wrongdoing but also restore some faith in the Belarusian government.

Conclusion

The situation in Belarus under President Lukashenko remains tense and uncertain. The recent actions by the Belarusian government, such as border closures and demands for compensation, demonstrate the regime's continued defiance of international norms. While Lukashenko may be unwilling to back down, the international community must remain vigilant and work towards a more democratic and transparent future for Belarus. The ordeal of the Ryanair passengers and others who face political persecution in Belarus should serve as a stark reminder of the need for global advocacy for human rights and democratic values.