Is Climate Change Slowing Down?: The Role of Ocean Heating and Geologic Time Scales
Climate change remains a contentious topic, with many debates surrounding its recent progress and long-term trends. This article delves into the evidence and theories surrounding climate change and highlights why it's important to examine ocean heating and geologic time scales, rather than relying on short-term data fluctuations.
Understanding Ocean Heating as a Key Indicator
The atmosphere can’t go anywhere the ocean doesn’t let it go because the ocean is the 200lb gorilla in the room. Ocean heating, therefore, is the best measure of climate change. In 2023, as in previous years, ocean heating continues at a steady pace, showing no signs of slowing down.
Graphically, the stability of ocean heating highlights that climate change is an ongoing process, and a single year of data is insufficient to make a meaningful assessment. It is crucial to examine climate patterns over 30-year periods or longer, considering the long-term trends and internal variability.
Contextualizing Climate Change Through Geologic Time Scales
Climate has never been static; it has always been changing since the planet coalesced from the gas cloud that became our solar system. From a geologic perspective, the Earth's climate goes through natural cycles, influenced by various factors including the impact of large celestial bodies and the evolving moon.
The impact of a huge planetoid is a well-theorized event that occurred about 4.5 billion years ago, causing significant alterations to the planet. The moon's orbit expanded over millions of years, and it likely took only 12 to 15 days for the moon to complete an orbit around the Earth. Life on Earth, as we know it, may have formed during this period.
Another significant impact event occurred approximately 66 million years ago, wiping out the dinosaurs and altering Earth's climate into the cycles we see today, including ice ages approximately every 100,000 years. Evidence suggests that these cycles may extend back to at least 5 billion years, from the time of that massive impact.
The Impact of Human Activities: A Short-Sighted View
The concept of "man-made climate change" is often hotly debated. However, when examining the more extensive geologic context, human activity on Earth has been minimal in the grand scheme of things. For example, mankind hasn't had the knowledge to control fire for just 100,000 years, and our ancestors existed for millions of years before we had the capacity to industrialize.
Even with the industrial revolution, the changes humans have brought about are still relatively small compared to the Earth's natural cycles. The significant changes we see in climate data, such as rising CO2 levels, are often compared to the scatter in a 500,000-year graph, indicating that the fluctuations are more of a natural range than a clear, harmful signal.
Conclusion
Climate change is not just a topic for short-term data analysis. To truly understand the Earth's climate, it is essential to consider the long-term trends and geologic time scales. Ocean heating, in particular, provides a clear and consistent indicator of climate change over extended periods.
While ongoing human activities undoubtedly contribute to changes in the environment, the natural cycles of the Earth extend far beyond human intervention. Understanding and respecting these cycles forms the foundation of any comprehensive approach to climate change.