Implications of Ukraine's EU Membership on Belarus' Relations with Ukraine and Russia
The European Union (EU) is known for its stringent criteria and selective approach to granting membership. Belarus, unfortunately, does not currently meet these requirements. This is due to the nation's authoritarian regime, which does not align with the EU's values of democracy and the rule of law. It is highly unlikely that Belarus will be admitted to the EU until a significant political change occurs and the current dictator concedes to democratic reforms.
Belarus’ Current Role in Russia’s Aggression
Currently, Belarus is under Russia's influence and is actively assisting in the aggressive actions against Ukraine. However, this relationship is shifting as Russia's economic sanctions continue to take their toll. Belarus continues to struggle with its association with Russia's failing economic and political system. The country's leaders understand that remaining aligned with Russia is no longer a viable long-term strategy for its nation.
Ukraine's EU Membership and Its Impact on Belarus
As Ukraine's candidate status converts to full EU membership, it will join Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia as the fourth EU neighbor of Belarus. This move is significant for Belarusians, who are aware of the benefits their neighbors enjoy. The prospering economies of these EU bordering countries, coupled with the hardships and economic difficulties faced by countries aligned with Russia, will likely encourage Belarusians to push their government to seek EU membership.
Historically, Belarus and Ukraine share close ties, which has made the Belarusian army reluctant to participate in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Even under Russian general command, there was a high likelihood that Belarusian troops would side with their Ukrainian counterparts rather than fight against them. This shared history and the potential benefits of EU membership are powerful motivators for Belarus to consider its future in the EU.
End of Russian Influence in Belarus
The current Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, is a puppet of Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, as Russia continues to face political and economic challenges, the tie between Belarus and Russia is weakening. The fall from grace of both leaders and the political ties that bind them signify the end of a significant chapter in the relationship between Belarus and Russia.
In light of these factors, the scenario of Ukraine's EU membership could be the final straw for Belarus' Russian influence. As Belarus considers its future and the benefits offered by EU membership, the relationship with Russia may enter a new phase. The citizens of Belarus will likely be driven to seek better economic and political futures, aligning themselves more closely with the EU rather than Russia.
It is clear that Ukraine's path to the EU is changing the geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe. As Belarus weighs its options, the coming years will undoubtedly bring significant changes to the relations between Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia.