If Brexit Were Reversed: Would the UK Have to Reapply to Join the EU?
The UK's decision to leave the European Union (EU), commonly known as Brexit, has had profound effects on the nation. Since the departure, the UK has seen significant changes in its migration, trade, and governance. However, some are questioning whether the UK would have to reapply to join the EU if Brexit were reversed. This article explores the complexities and implications of such a scenario.
The Success of Brexit
Many argue that Brexit has been a massive success for the UK. Prior to Brexit, one of the most significant issues was the mass migration of Eastern Europeans seeking employment in the UK. Between 2010 and 2020, an average of 350,000 people from Eastern Europe moved to the UK annually. This influx placed a strain on the UK's job market, benefit systems, and housing.
With Brexit, the UK has successfully halted this migration. This has helped protect UK jobs, reduce the burden on the benefit system, and better manage the housing market. Additionally, the UK no longer subsidizes the EU, as it was the second largest net contributor to the EU budget.
The UK’s balance of trade with the EU has improved, despite Germany suffering similar losses. Major multinationals, including Shell and Unilever, have even moved their global headquarters to the UK due to its business-friendly environment. This has positioned the UK as a key player in the global market.
On a global scale, according to the United Nations, the UK is now the fourth largest exporter in the world. This positive economic performance has solidified the UK's position as a formidable global trader.
The Reapplication Dilemma
Despite the significant progress made under Brexit, the UK would still have to reapply as a new member if it were to join the EU again. This would come with several challenges. The UK would need to correct any issues that arose during the period of divergence since Brexit. Furthermore, rejoining the EU would likely involve commitments to join the Schengen Area and adopt the Euro, concepts that are considered risky and controversial.
The key requirement of joining the Schengen Area means the UK would need to drop borders with other EU countries, a move that is widely viewed as a significant political and security risk. Additionally, adopting the Euro would involve aligning fiscal policies and potentially ceding economic sovereignty to the European Central Bank. Both of these requirements would be extremely difficult to achieve and would face strong opposition from different factions within UK politics.
Challenges Moving Forward
The current economic and demographic challenges facing the UK underscore the complexity of rejoining the EU. The UK faces an aging population and a declining number of tax-payers. With low birth rates and an insufficient number of young workers to support the pensioners, immigration is seen as the plan to address these issues.
There is some hope that re-establishing the Customs Union could offer a mutual benefit. However, this comes with its own set of challenges, including potential caveats such as tax reform or joining the Euro. Both of these proposals would likely face significant opposition, making them contentious issues in UK politics.
Given the current political landscape, a simple referendum might be the solution. However, the proposition of a 52 to 48 vote split would pose serious questions about the legitimacy of the decision. While polls may show favoritism, the actual implementation of such a change would require careful consideration to avoid potential economic and social instability.
Conclusion
In conclusion, reversing Brexit and reapplying to the EU would be a complex and challenging process. The UK would face significant obstacles, including the need to align with EU policies and potentially join political and economic frameworks that are not well-received by the British public.