Hungary's Position in a Contested World: Why Orbán Refuses to Withdraw From EU and NATO

Hungary, a member of both the European Union (EU) and NATO, is often seen as having a unique position within both these organizations. This article explores the reasons why Viktor Orbán has chosen to maintain Hungary's membership in the EU and NATO despite criticisms from the international community. It delves into the complexities of Hungary's stance and the broader implications of its relationship with both blocs.

Democracy and Free Speech in Hungary

Democracy and free speech are fundamental assets of the EU and NATO. Hungary, as a democratic nation, has the right to express differing opinions. The fact that the Hungarian government's stance on issues like the war in Ukraine is unique compared to other EU and NATO members is neither a fault nor a consequence of a lack of liberal democracy. It is a result of the freedom of expression that comes with a well-functioning democratic system.

Complex Stance Towards the War in Ukraine

Hungary is neither pro-Russian nor anti-Russian. The EU and NATO, however, lean towards a pro-Ukrainian and anti-Russian stance. Ukraine is a nationalist state, and while this nationalistic sentiment was present before the war, it has intensified during the conflict. This does not legitimate Russian actions such as “denazification,” but some of Russia's claims of being harassed are not entirely baseless. The West often dismissed these claims as propaganda, but some were indeed legitimate.

There have been sporadic incidents against Hungarians in Ukraine even before the war, and the Ukrainian authorities have been less than forthcoming in addressing these issues. Additionally, there have been concerns regarding the education of Hungarian minorities in Ukraine. Given these complexities, it is understandable why Hungary is wary of prolonging the war through the provision of military aid to what it perceives as an oppressive regime.

Internal Opposition to War Efforts

Evidence suggests that many Hungarians, particularly those outside of the political sphere, support the European Union. It is the Hungarian government that has created problems, primarily through its policies and rhetoric. Viktor Orbán and his political party have been the ones to drive a wedge between Hungary and the international community. This does not necessarily mean that the Hungarian people as a whole are opposed to the EU or NATO.

Orbán’s Motivations and Limitations

Viktor Orbán and his political party have a significant influence on Hungary's relationship with the EU and NATO. However, it is important to note that governments come and go. Despite Orbán's assertive stance, it is unlikely that he will be in power indefinitely. The current membership of Hungary in the EU and NATO is secure for the time being.

Orbán has no easy way out if he attempts to remove Hungary from the EU or NATO. The EU is too economically significant for Hungary to walk away from it. Leaving NATO would be even more challenging as Hungary’s geographical position and strategic importance within the alliance make it vulnerable. Moreover, Putin is politically astute, and Orbán would not want to risk aligning with Russia too closely, given the unpredictability of Russian responses.

Concluding Thoughts

Hungary's position is a reflection of the complex dynamics within the EU and NATO. While Viktor Orbán has voiced criticisms, his desire to maintain Hungary's membership in these organizations is driven by practical and strategic reasons. It is essential to recognize that Hungary's stance is not representative of all Hungarians and should not be conflated with the broader sentiment of the country.

In summary, Hungary's continued membership in both the EU and NATO is a testament to the practicalities of international politics and the realpolitik that often underpins decisions made by sovereign nations. Viktor Orbán's current stance is not an unchangeable position but rather a pragmatism that balances domestic politics, alliances, and security concerns.