Finland's Path to NATO: An Analysis
The recent events in Ukrainian conflict have drawn global attention to Finland's potential NATO membership. On April 4, 2023, Finland officially joined NATO, making it the newest member of the alliance. This decision was largely driven by Russia's aggressive actions towards Ukraine and the subsequent illegal annexation of Crimea.
Finland's Long-standing Alliance with NATO
Although Finland has been a longstanding ally of NATO, working closely with the alliance for many years, its decision to join was not immediate. Finland has been neutral by treaty and joined the European Union only in 1994, as the Russian threat diminished.
Finland's longstanding cooperation with NATO has been noted by various experts and NATO officials. They have been participating in NATO training exercises and meetings regularly, and their defense capabilities, such as the use of F-18 and F-35 aircraft, indicate their preparedness for alliance membership.
The Russian Factor and NATO's Dynamics
The key factor in Finland's NATO membership is the escalating tensions with Russia. The Russian invasion of Ukraine exemplified their aggressive stance, prompting Finland to reassess its security situation and seek stronger ties with NATO to enhance its own defense against potential threats.
Finland and Sweden have recently sent their applications to join the US-led NATO. While this move aligns with NATO's expectations, the alliance will still conduct an investigation of their defense establishments for formality.
The Turkish Constraint
The main obstacle to Finland's and Sweden's entry into NATO is the stance of Turkey, especially due to their relationship with Kurdish groups. The fighting between Turkey and Kurdish groups, including their support for them, has led Turkey's president, Erdogan, to block the countries' accession.
Erdogan's objections stem from longstanding disputes over the extradition of wanted individuals and the protection of Kurdish leaders. His stance has created a formidable challenge for NATO as Turkey is a member of the alliance and can wield considerable influence.
NATO's options are limited. Paying off Turkey or making a deal may be the most pragmatic approach. Expelling Turkey is not a feasible option as it would create a significant vulnerability in NATO's Southern flank. This move would also alienate other European nations, as Turkey might then open its borders to refugees and destabilize the region further.
Implications and Future Prospects
The geopolitical consequences of Turkey's stance could be severe. Turkey's alignment with Russia, especially in terms of sharing sensitive NATO information, would be a significant security concern for NATO. Additionally, Turkey's closer ties with Russia could weaken international unity and further destabilize the region.
In light of these challenges, a diplomatic solution is crucial. NATO members must engage in negotiations to find a compromise that addresses Turkey's concerns while allowing Finland and Sweden to join. Ultimately, the strengthening of NATO's membership will depend on resolving these complex geopolitical issues.
Conclusion
Finland's recent addition to NATO marks a significant development in the alliance's membership and global security landscape. While the road to full membership is fraught with challenges, particularly due to Turkey's veto, NATO's unity and negotiation skills will be crucial in overcoming these obstacles.