Introduction

The question of whether Ethiopia's war is over or just beginning remains a pertinent one, particularly in light of the ongoing instability and conflicts within various regions of the country.

From the deep-seated political turmoil in Tigray to the ethnic and border conflicts, the situation in Ethiopia remains complex and volatile. This article aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the current state of affairs and the potential future developments.

The Ongoing Conflict in Tigray and Its Implications

One of the most significant and protracted conflicts is the one in Tigray, which officially began on November 3, 2020, following a series of unprovoked massacres by TPLF forces. The Incident marked a turning point in Ethiopian politics, and the subsequent war presented a critical challenge to Ethiopia's political stability.

Despite the official end of military action from the Ethiopian federal forces around November 27, 2020, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) continued to fight, claiming they would continue the fight. However, the encirclement of TPLF forces and their apparent lack of support from other areas suggests that they are now in a vulnerable position. This scenario raises questions about the future of the conflict.

The political landscape in Ethiopia is highly complex, with various political parties and ethnic groups vying for power. The ongoing conflict has underscored the challenges of achieving a constitutional dispensation that can institutionalize direct democracy, creating an environment that is susceptible to internal conflicts.

Border Conflicts and Potential Threats

Border conflicts and potential threats from neighboring countries further exacerbate the situation. The ongoing conflict with Eritrea and the possibility of a caliphate invasion highlight the vulnerabilities of Ethiopia. The reformation of the Ethiopian empire with Eritrea is viewed as a critical step to resolving these issues.

Additionally, the military build-up in and around Tigray, involving Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Amhara, suggests that the region remains a focal point of ongoing tension and potential conflict.

Other Conflicts and Issues in Ethiopia

Further adding to the complexity is the ongoing conflict in Oromia, where the government is accused of committing war crimes by bombing civilians and extrajudicial killings. The Oromo Federalist Congress has released a press statement detailing the atrocities committed in the region, drawing international attention to this ongoing human rights issue.

Other regions have also experienced conflicts, with clashes reported in Southern Ethiopia, Benshangul Gumuz bordering Sudan, and Gonder, where extremist groups have attacked Muslims, leading to significant loss of life and widespread fear.

Conclusion: Future Outlook and Recommendations

Only time will tell whether the conflict in Tigray and other regions of Ethiopia will ease or intensify. Addressing the root causes of the conflict, such as political instability and ethnic tensions, will be crucial in achieving lasting peace and stability.

Immediate steps to stave off the looming threats include:

Facilitating negotiations between warring parties to reach a ceasefire agreement Addressing the political and constitutional issues that have led to instability Investing in peace-building and reconciliation efforts in affected regions Enhancing the role of international organizations and mediators to support the peace process

Ultimately, the key to mitigating the ongoing conflict lies in fostering a sense of national unity and inclusivity, ensuring that all voices are heard and represented in the political process.