EU Membership: Assessing the Chances for Turkey and Azerbaijan
Both Turkey and Azerbaijan are facing significant challenges when it comes to their membership in the European Union (EU). While both countries are not qualified to join the EU, their prospects are quite different due to their respective political and economic climates.
The EU as a Lottery
The European Union is often not seen as a simple lottery for membership. While several countries around the world have expressed interest in joining the EU, the organization maintains stringent requirements and criteria that must be met. Both Turkey and Azerbaijan face substantial hurdles in their pursuit of EU membership.
According to the official criteria for EU membership, candidate countries must meet certain conditions such as stability, democracy, human rights, rule of law, market economy performance, and alignment with EU policies and legislation. This leaves both Turkey and Azerbaijan with a long and difficult road ahead.
Turkey’s Membership Candidacy Status
Turkey has an ongoing membership candidacy status, but the outcome of this road is uncertain. The European Commission’s 2020 report on Turkey's progress outlined several areas of concern, including human rights, rule of law, and the need for substantial reforms. However, there are also some notable exceptions, such as the ongoing issues concerning Cyprus.
The European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) report suggests that Turkey's accession is highly unlikely in the near future. Factors like the country's political climate, regional stability, and geopolitical dynamics make EU membership an arduous and improbable goal.
Azerbaijan’s Complex Path
Azerbaijan's prospects for EU membership appear even more challenging. The country’s resources, particularly its significant petroleum reserves, and its geopolitical alignment with Russia present complex issues.
According to various experts and reports, Azerbaijan fails almost every issue that pertains to Turkish membership. However, the situation may not be entirely bleak. While the EU does have reservations about Azerbaijan, particularly regarding its human rights record and corruption, there may still be some possibilities for dialogue and cooperation.
The European Commission's 2020 report on Azerbaijan highlights several areas of concern, including the lack of full commitment to democracy and fundamental freedoms. However, the report also acknowledges that Azerbaijan shares strategic interests with the EU in areas such as energy security and regional stability.
Challenges and Alternatives
Neither Turkey nor Azerbaijan necessarily "want" to join the EU, largely because the benefits of membership are outweighed by the costs and challenges. The EU faces numerous issues of its own, including political, social, and economic problems. For countries like Turkey and Azerbaijan, the prospect of joining a union with 27 members is less appealing than focusing on domestic reforms and development.
For Turkey, the desire for EU membership has declined significantly in recent years due to President Erdogan's nationalist and international policies. The country's aspirations are now more aligned with regional initiatives and alliances. Meanwhile, for Azerbaijan, the priority is to maintain its energy security and strengthen its economic ties with Europe and other global powers.
Conclusion
The EU case for Turkey is effectively closed, and it seems unlikely that the country will join the union in the foreseeable future. As for Azerbaijan, the road to EU membership remains fraught with challenges. Both countries would be better served by focusing on democratic reforms and economic development, rather than pursuing membership in a club with 27 members.
Ultimately, the European Union is not a one-size-fits-all solution. Both Turkey and Azerbaijan would benefit more from strengthening their own governance and economic structures, rather than seeking to conform to the complex demands of EU membership.
By continuing to refine their own policies and priorities, these countries can better serve their citizens and address their biggest challenges.