Dissecting the Iraq Votenation: How Many Americans in Afghanistan Voted for Biden?

As the world watches the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, the question of voter turnout among the 10–15,000 Americans who remained comes to light. Many have wondered, how many of these Americans cast their ballots for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in the 2020 election?

Eligibility and Turnout Estimates

According to reports, approximately 3 million Americans living abroad were eligible to vote in the 2020 election. In 2016, the turnout rate among these voters was around 6.9%. Assuming a similar figure, an estimated 10,000 Americans in Afghanistan were eligible to vote, and out of these, roughly 6.9% (about 690 voters) participated. The voting results showed 354 for Biden and 336 for Trump, with 53.1% and 46.8% of the votes, respectively.

What Does This Mean?

The turnout is far from negligible, but it is important to clarify that it has little bearing on the Biden Administration's commitment to aid those remaining in the country. The United States has made it clear that every American who wants to leave Afghanistan will be evacuated. This is a stark contrast to the actions of the Trump administration during the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, when assistance to Democratic governors was neglected.

Background and Context

The decision to withdraw from Afghanistan began with former President Donald Trump, who in 2019 initiated direct negotiations with the Taliban outside the presence of the Afghan government. The Taliban demanded this negotiation, and Trump agreed, with the stipulation that the Afghan government would release 5,000 Taliban prisoners. This move significantly weakened the legitimate Afghan government and encouraged the Taliban.

In February 2020, Trump and the Taliban agreed that the U.S. should withdraw by May 2020 if the Taliban would not harbor other terrorist groups like Al Qaeda. This further legitimized the Taliban within the eyes of the U.S. government, setting the stage for a weakened Afghan state and the resurgence of Taliban influence.

On November 17, 2020, shortly after losing the election, Trump announced that all but 2,500 U.S. troops would be withdrawn from Afghanistan. The timeline aligned with his inauguration, despite Congressional intervention. This move was in violation of the National Defense Authorization Act passed by Congress, which barred the Pentagon from reducing the number of troops below 4,000.

Key Takeaways and Actions

For Americans in Afghanistan, it is crucial to have a plan for departure. The U.S. Embassy advises making plans to depart by commercial airlines and avoiding relying on government assistance. They also warn Americans to stay alert and be aware of their surroundings.

Key Points to Remember:

Have evacuation plans that do not depend on U.S. government intervention. Stay alert in places frequented by foreigners and be aware of local developments. Keep a low profile and notify a trusted contact of your travel and movement plans.

The actions of both the Trump and Biden administrations have had significant effects on the situation in Afghanistan. Understanding the background and context can provide valuable insight into the current state of affairs and the challenges facing those remaining in the country.