BJP's Prospects in Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha Election 2019: Analyzing the Feasibility and Challenges
In the run-up to the Lok Sabha Election 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faces a significant challenge in the southern state of Tamil Nadu. Many critics argue that the party's campaign faces numerous obstacles, primarily due to its alignment with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) ideology, which is often perceived as polarizing and opposed to the culture and traditions of Tamil Nadu.
Historical Context and Political Climate
The BJP's political footing in Tamil Nadu is contentious. The party was initially seen as a force capable of significant electoral gains when it aligned with local allies. However, the party's agenda, particularly its advocacy for a 'Hindu Rashtra,' has alienated many voters. The 1998 assembly election victory remains the BJP's only significant electoral victory in the state, a feat secured with the help of anti-incumbency sentiment towards the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and support from godhi media (local caste leaders).
The Current Scenario and Electoral Challenges
Without election fraud, the BJP is projected to secure zero seats in Tamil Nadu. However, the party is leveraging both incumbency and EVM (Electronic Voting Machine) irregularities to enhance its chances of victory in select constituencies. According to analysts, unless there are significant and unexpected changes, the BJP's prospects remain grim.
Current forecasts suggest that the BJP might manage to win just one seat, primarily due to the following reasons:
Lack of Charismatic State-Level Leaders
The BJP's repertoire is missing charismatic state-level leaders comparable to figures such as Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh. The party suffers from a dearth of popular figures who can rally the masses effectively.
The local political dynamics in Tamil Nadu are often influenced by caste and regional identities, factors that the BJP struggles to align with.
Anti-Tamil Sentiment
There is a developing perception among the people of Tamil Nadu, who see their identity and cultural heritage as distinct and superior to what they perceive as a nationalistic agenda pushed by the BJP. This sentiment has fueled anti-Tamil nationalism, posing a significant obstacle for the BJP's campaign.
Meru Padai (The Meru Issue)
The BJP has unnecessarily stirred up contentious issues, such as the 'Meru Padai' or dance of the mermaids, considering it a major point in its campaign. Such strategies have been perceived as tongues wagging politics, further alienating potential voters.
Non-Popularity of Modi
Prime Minister Modi is not perceived as a popular leader in Tamil Nadu. His image is often negatively influenced by his association with the RSS and the party's hardline stance, which does not resonate well with the state's cultural values.
Coordination Issues with Alliance Partners
Coordination among BJP and its local alliance partners has been a recurring issue. The failure to present a united front has weakened the BJP's electoral stance in the state.
Section-Wise Analysis in Key Constituencies
The BJP faces different challenges in various Tamil Nadu constituencies:
Coimbatore Constituency
In the Coimbatore constituency, the BJP stands a good chance to win. Former MP, C.P. Radhakrishnan, is a strong contender given his popularity and support from BJP cadres and the Kaveri (Kongu) region's people. The alliance with the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is also a potential game-changer. Additionally, the presence of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) reduces the influence of AIADMK, facilitating BJP's victory.
While the Congress and DMK form a formidable alliance in most of Tamil Nadu, Coimbatore's trajectory towards Hindutva is projected to ensure BJP's win by a significant margin.
Other Key Constituencies
In other constituencies, the BJP faces strong competition from the DMK, Congress alliance, and the influence of the 'Trapeze Theatre Vehicle' (TTV) factor, which has dented AIADMK's vote share in certain regions of South Central, North, and West Tamil Nadu.
Conclusion
The BJP's resurgence in Tamil Nadu is highly improbable without significant political miracles. The party faces numerous logistical, ideological, and strategic challenges. Without a combined effort to overcome these obstacles, the BJP's chances of securing any meaningful seats in Tamil Nadu remain bleak.